Posted by
Crescen7(Regis Matejcik) on Saturday, July 04, 2009 9:53:36 AM
Ok, this is purely conjecture. Or perhaps more honestly - it's wishful thinking.
Sarah Palin's resignation as Governor of Alaska stunned everyone. Over Father's Day weekend, the Presidential hopes of Governor Sanford expired, now over 4th of July weekend many would say the political future of Sarah Palin has also expired. This leaves Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee as the only semi-recognizable potential Presidential challengers left in the Republican world. A primary fight between these two would be a Democrat dream come true, and virtually assure us of another four years of "hoping for change."
But . . .
Sara Palin could be of great value in supporting "real conservatives" in the 2010 Congressional races. It's about money. Ronald Reagan became a serious candidate because a small number of wealthy backers supported his political endeavors. Under todays campaign finance laws, Reagan could not have financed his initial political activities. No group of wealthy backers can support a candidate to any great extent and not break campaign finance laws. Democrats have found a way to effectively circumvent these laws with powerful exempt groups like "Move On.org" and "Media Matters". Republicans have been less successful in finding such legal loopholes.
Here's where the "Palin Factor" could succeed. There are numerous house seats that will be contested in 2010. The RNC has been woefully ineffective at fielding and supporting strong conservative candidates. The existence of campaign finance laws may be tieing one hand of the RNC behind its back, but it is it's own incompetence that has disabled the other. There are no existing campaign finance laws that limit contributions to a person that is not running for anything. That makes private citizen, Sarah Palin potentially the most powerful enemy of the radical left, and the most sought after endorsement of the conservative right.
Sarah Palin is the biggest draw in the Republican Party. Her appearance at a fund raiser or rally gives instant credibility to any candidate. She would be able to give immediate name recognition and energy to any candidate who might challenge a vulnerable Democrat, or pose a primary challenge to a weak Republican. There are eight particular Republican Congressmen that come to mind. (Perhaps Mary "Donno Jack" is listening). Of course the same would be true for Senate races.
Crazy ?
Perhaps. But consider the following recent Senate example . . .
In 2004, Pat Toomey challenged Arlin Spector in the Republican Party Primary race for Senate in Pennsylvania. Spector, in accordance with tradition recieved the support of the President, the RNC, and even Rick Santorum. Spector managed to defeat Toomey by 2% in the primary. Of course Spector went on to win the general election and then cast the deciding vote for the Obama stimulus package that may effectively bankrupt the U.S. Government.
Now, consider the above closely contested election, and introduce the "Palin Factor." Imagine a couple of well timed joint appearances with Sarah Palin, crowds swelling to the 10's of thousands, and the huge energy that surrounds Palin's appearance. The media couldn't help but report, even though they'd be trashing Palin - the free media time couldn't help but work in the challengers favor. It's hard to imagine that in a case like the PA primary, that Palin wouldn't have been able to energize enough of the base, and convince enough of the doubtful, to swing the primary in Toomey's favor.
Had Toomey won the general - we'd have 2 trillion dollars less future debt. If he would've lost, we'd be exactly where we are now.
If Palin proves to be successful in supporting challengers, she would become both politically powerful in her own right as an "outsider", and possibly return to political viability for a future Presidential bid. As such Sarah Palin could become a true "King Maker", and a means by which real conservatives could regain control of the Republican Party.
Perhaps just wishful thinking . . .
But Perhaps not.