In 1968, Richard Nixon defeated Hubert Humphrey in a relatively close election.  It was that year that at ten years old, I began my fascination with politics.  Since that time I've been proud of my ability to "read the tea leaves" and make reasonable projections about upcoming elections.  Though, not perfect, my record is generally good.  But even in cases where I've been incorrect, I've almost always had a "gut feel" for which way things would go.

This year is different.  Quite different.  So much so, that I won't be surprised at any outcome.  It could be Obama in a landslide, Obama by a narrow margin, McCain by a landslide, or McCain by a narrow margin.  Of these possibilities, it is only the "McCain by a landslide" that causes people to react.  To that end, allow me to endulge myself in my perhaps delusional scenario of a McCain landslide.

But what of the polls?  What of all the polls?  They ALL say OBAMA.  Some by a lot, some by a little.  Surely if McCain wins it will be by the narrowest of margins.

This is where the tea leaves become wind blown, and the crystal ball gets cloudy.  The polls have told us for months that the State of Iowa was a double digit win for Obama.  That seems reasonable since McCain has always opposed grain subsidies for ethanol and has never been popular in Iowa.  Yet, in the final days of the campaign, Obama is campaigning in Iowa.

Can it be that Obama can't read the polls either ?

Barack Obama is running ads in California.  The consensus explanation is that he's trying to support the gay marriage initiative - but is that believable?  This is a candidate the told his own party that he wouldn't lend financial support to any others in his party, now we are asked to believe that he is burning money to aid in turn out against a state wide ballot initiative. 

Is it not remotely plausible to conjure a different scenario?

McCain, the senator from neighboring Arizona, has always been popular with Californians.  McCain is also the virtual patron state of Mexican immigration.  The electorate in California is almost 1/3 hispanic.  Hispanics, especially those who've recently immigrated, harbor some of the deepest racial bigotry of any demographic in the country.  Is it not possible to conceive that many of these voters will vote McCain ?  Perhaps even while feigning support for Obama ?

To be sure, an upset in California is unlikely.  Most polls place Obama in a +20% margin over McCain.  But given the historic voting patterns of the State demography, the gay marriage ballot initiative that will energize conservatives, and the fact that McCain is a virtual "Arnold clone" (without the steroids); the possibility of a strong McCain showing should not be completely discounted.  Remember, Obama lost California to Hillary by almost 10 points. 

Even if one discounts a possible California upset, close by Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado share similar characteristics, all the voting models predict a heavy hispanic turn-out, and a heavy support by hispanics for Obama.  At this point I must inject my own subjectivity.  I'm in the construction business in Central Texas.  I spend a good deal of time near the border in and around Laredo.  I deal with Hispanics every day.  As of today, there is not a single blue collar Mexican-American I know that is going to vote for Barack Obama.  This evidence is by no means statistically significant, but it definitely adds to the cloudiness in the crystal ball.  In short, it seems plausible that the voter poll models that identify large Hispanic turn out in western states as a Democrat strength - might be 180 degrees out of phase.

Should any of this analysis have merit, moving from West to East, McCain would sweep the west and mountain states, losing only Washington and Oregon where liberal white guilt and mail-in voting will carry the day for Obama. 

In the mid-west, we have a different dynamic in place; but once again we are presented a voter turn-out model that assumes high "young voter" turn out, "record black" turn out, and a higher Democrat voter ID than Rupublican.  Oddly, while we've been likewise treated to study after study which indicate that stunning numbers of white democrats will never vote for a black person, that is never reflected in polling results.  Accordingly, we have a "turn-out" model that skews way to the Democrat side, anticipates huge black voting (both likely to be true) but ignores any possibility that there may be a counterbalancing segment of the traditional democrat voting coalition.  Those would be the bitter clingers of rural Pennsyvania, and Ohio.  Those are the people who've been told for forty years that the plight of black people is their fault and responsibility.  Those are the people who need just the slightest excuse to abandon the Obama Jauggernaut.

Much of the East is clearly leaning heavily to Obama.  There are a couple of possibilities for surprise though.  New Hampshire stunned Obama in the primary after polls showed him the double digit favorite.  Massachusetts voted for Hillary.  The idea that Massachusetts might vote Republican is absurd.  The final numbers there may be surprising however.  The elderly population of Massachusetts has a very wary support of Obama.  The "Aunt Zetuni" issue fell flat on most of the country, but it hit hard in Boston.  If Massachusetts isn't called by 7:00 Eastern time - it could be a bad sign for Obama.

The Palin factor has been totally discounted.  She's been identified as a drag on the campaign, but seems to be the main reason that the outcome of this election is still in doubt.  This could be something of a "Bradley multiplier."  Some, who support McCain tell pollsters they're voting for a Obama because they don't want to be thought of as racist.  Is it not possible that some women are hiding their support of Palin because they don't want to be thought of as sexist ?

OK, maybe Obama wins in a blowout.  But here's what it takes:

-Youth vote makes a big turnout (this would be a first)
-Black vote increases dramatically (even though in every previous election democrats registered and bussed blacks to the polls by the thousands)
-"Bitter Clingers" suddenly become enlightened
- Hillary supporters remain insignificant
- Few women are secretly enraged at the mocking of a strong successful woman
- Mexicans will shed their bigotry and enthusiastically wait in lines to vote Obama
- Jews completely ignore they're voting for a guy named Hussein
- The Republican base is so demoralized - they stay home.

Of course, that's not to say it won't happen exactly that way - but I'll believe it when I see it.  Right now I'm going out to stand in line at 6:45 am, in a state that is not a battleground, to vote for the man I personally spent thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours opposing in the primaries, - John McCain